Until the NBA makes changes, tanking still remains the best option for getting out of the dreaded purgatory of being an average team. You know there is a problem with a sport when a team is in a better position to become a contender as a 20-win team, as compared to a 40-win team.

Unfortunately, being a mediocre-to-average team is a position in the NBA that is very difficult to escape. Each season, there are arguably 3-4 teams that have a legitimate shot at winning the NBA Championship. The sport is unique in that way. The NFL, MLB, and NHL have had its share of low seeds and wild card teams make deep playoff runs. Case in point, only twice in NBA history has a champion emerged as the #4 seed or later (4th seed 1969 Boston Celtics and 6th seed 1995 Houston Rockets). The first and second seeds have dominated the list of NBA Champions, with the last #3 seed to win being the 2011 Dallas Mavericks.

The takeaway is that flukes and parity are virtually nonexistent in the NBA. So what’s the big discovery, that the best teams from the regular season traditionally hold up the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June? Obviously. That is a given. But if you examine most of the NBA Champions in recent memory, they have a consistent similarity: They are led by or receive a major contribution from a player selected at the top of the NBA Draft.

Let’s take a look at the NBA Champions going back to 1980 along with the draft position of their best player

There are a few outliers. In 1983, the Philadelphia 76ers were led by Julius Erving who was drafted 12th overall and began his career in the ABA. Secondly, the Lakers of 2009 and 2010 were led by Kobe Bryant, a 13th overall draft pick. On the surface, it looks like an absolute steal. For what it’s worth, it sure was. However, when Bryant was drafted in 1996, a time when it was normal for high school players to be selected highly in the draft.

Bryant was certainly not the first high school player to be drafted, but he picked at a time when teams were still very nervous about drafting someone right out of high school. A lot changed over the next few years; as in 2001, we saw the first four draft picks forgo college basketball for the NBA. It was not until 2006 when eligible players had to be at least one year removed from high school to enter the NBA. The bottom line is that if a prospect with the potential of Kobe Bryant came out a few years later, he most certainly would have been drafted much higher than 13th overall.

While one could argue that the best player on the 2006 Miami Heat was Dwayne Wade(drafted 5th overall in 2003), that team would have won without Shaquille O’Neal (1st overall in 1992). But the purpose of this exercise is to look at the importance of having a highly drafted player on the roster. But, fifth overall isn’t exactly low.

If we took all of the players leading their teams to championships from 1980 to 2016, the average draft selection was 3.27. If we remove the aforementioned outliers of Erving and Bryant, that average moves up to 2.44. So what does that tell us? That recent NBA history will tell you that if you want a legitimate shot at an NBA Championship, you need a superstar-caliber player that can most realistically be acquired within the first three picks of the NBA Draft.

The Golden State Warriors of the past few years could also be viewed as an anomaly, as Steph Curry was a 7th overall pick. It may be easy to forget how Curry was not viewed as an elite prospect coming out of Davidson in 2009. 

Same can be said for Draymond Green, who slipped into the abyss of the second round of the 2012 NBA Draft. 

The 2004 Detroit Pistons, despite having Chauncey Billups who was drafted 3rd overall, may be the last NBA Champion without a true superstar. That was thirteen years ago.

Aside from the very few outliers and anomalies, the message is clear. In the NBA, if you do not have a superstar, you do not have a chance. It’s that simple. With the lack of NBA-ready talent entering the draft each year, teams without that star, franchise player have had to resort to tanking to put themselves in the position to draft that individual who will hopefully lead the franchise out of the dreaded NBA purgatory to the promised land.

Teams good enough to sneak the playoffs as the 7th or 8th seed define NBA purgatory. Those teams have virtually zero chance of winning it all, yet have equally long odds of drafting a player with the potential to become the superstar that can make the team a true contender.

As easy as it may be to criticize teams who have tanked, or have intentionally put together a roster that will yield very few wins, you can’t blame them for doing it. The flawed structure of the NBA essentially incentivizes teams to do it. Several teams have “blown it up” and tanked for their next franchise player. The Spurs did it for Tim Duncan. The Sonics/Thunder did it for Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden.  

More recently the Sixers and Lakers have been following the same strategy with hopes that it will yield the same results. The Sixers are Lakers are not the first teams to tank, and as long as the NBA doesn’t make any changes to its structure, they won’t be the last. And I don’t blame them for doing so.

Source Credits:

http://ballislife.com/35-years-ago-the-lakers-selected-magic-johnson-with/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/

http://www.sportingnews.com/

http://ftw.usatoday.com/

http://www.detroitbadboys.com